Takeoff debate: concave curves don't prove diminishing returns block superintelligence
austinc3301 · x · 2026-11-09
A technical rebuttal to the claim that "acceleration isn't enough to overcome diminishing returns": the author argues a concave curve is expected by construction regardless, so curvature alone proves nothing. Major takeoff models like AI 2027 already model diminishing returns—points per dollar keeps falling, just all the way to superintelligence. For RSI, the real question is whether research effort outgrows difficulty.
More from AGI Musings
- Miyazaki: Young anime artists who only study anime are 'spinning wheels' — threepointone · 2026-11-09
- Dev Headcount Down, Customer-Facing Roles 10x: The Post-LLM Job Map — kylegawley · 2026-11-09
- ryolu_ releases full Shanghai talk: when AI can do anything, do we know what we want? — ryolu_ · 2026-11-09
- Australia Sees 108,300 Redundancies in Two Months, Highest Since COVID Amid AI Push — gaganghotra_ · 2026-11-09
- Productivity gains in OpenAI's data are actually declining over time, researcher finds — austinc3301 · 2026-11-09
- Ramez: OpenAI's Productivity Gain Per ECI Point Appears to Decline Over Time — ramez · 2026-11-09