Productivity gains in OpenAI's data are actually declining over time, researcher finds
austinc3301 · x · 2026-11-09
Replying to Ramez Naam, a researcher shared a "minor but perhaps surprising" finding from unpublished work: the productivity gain in OpenAI's monthly data is actually dropping over time (and thus possibly over points of ECI). The accompanying chart assumes smooth internal ECI growth, which he flags as a big assumption.
He welcomed more people building independent inside views on takeoff questions, noting the community that truly understands modern takeoff models is vanishingly small and heavily mutually influenced. He called on all labs to release more precise, longer-horizon empirical data to ground this.
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