Exponential AI progress is exponential investment with sublinear returns — world-changing, not god
dhadfieldmenell · x · 2026-11-09
shinboson highlights a widely missed factor: the exponential progress of AI over time is really exponential investment in time combined with sublinear returns on that investment. It will still be world-changing, but it is not god — and shouldn't be extrapolated into imminent god-like AGI. The accompanying TrackingAI chart shows IQ-score gains flattening logarithmically, projecting top models at 136 IQ a year out.
More from AGI Musings
- Miyazaki: Young anime artists who only study anime are 'spinning wheels' — threepointone · 2026-11-09
- Dev Headcount Down, Customer-Facing Roles 10x: The Post-LLM Job Map — kylegawley · 2026-11-09
- ryolu_ releases full Shanghai talk: when AI can do anything, do we know what we want? — ryolu_ · 2026-11-09
- Australia Sees 108,300 Redundancies in Two Months, Highest Since COVID Amid AI Push — gaganghotra_ · 2026-11-09
- Productivity gains in OpenAI's data are actually declining over time, researcher finds — austinc3301 · 2026-11-09
- Ramez: OpenAI's Productivity Gain Per ECI Point Appears to Decline Over Time — ramez · 2026-11-09