Anthropic's capability per $1B of R&D has collapsed 8x in two years, analysis shows
sebkrier · x · 2026-11-09
Ramez Naam quantifies diminishing returns at Anthropic using METR's capability-acceleration estimates and SEC filings: AECI points gained per $1B of R&D fell from 6.58 (2024) to 4.05 (H1 2025), 2.4 (H2 2025), 1.49 (H1 2026), and 0.76 (Q3 2026). On a log scale, boosting AI capability now costs 8x more than two years ago and is worsening. The data suggests METR's estimated acceleration isn't enough to offset diminishing returns — a rare money-to-capability framework for the "is scaling hitting a wall" debate.
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