OpenAI's R&D time horizon: ~15 min at 80% accuracy, doubling every 2 months
BasilHalperin · x · 2026-11-09
Basil Halperin's summary of OpenAI's AI R&D time horizons:
- At 80% accuracy, the horizon was 15 minutes in July, well below METR's headline numbers.
- But it's rising fast, with a 2-month doubling time, though this is sensitive to specification.
He adds he's unsure how to read the p50/p80 ratios, possibly related to high- vs low-context baselines or field-level differences.
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