Kwa's analysis: time horizon doubling every 4-7 months across domains
BasilHalperin · x · 2026-11-09
Halperin flags a puzzle: per Kwa's analysis, METR measures software-task horizons, but across other task types the growth speed is similar — 4-7 month doubling times. He and Dylan Ryfe are extending that analysis. Explanation (a), that OpenAI researchers left a giant overhang of AI research capability unused, is possible but underwhelming.
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