OpenAI internal time horizons doubling every 2 months vs METR's 4-7
BasilHalperin · x · 2026-11-09
BasilHalperin poses the central puzzle: why are OpenAI's internal AI R&D time horizons growing so fast? METR's public measurements (until they ended) showed doubling every 4-7 months, while OpenAI internal data implies doubling every 2 months.
The chart shows the Weibull 50%-success trend rising from 46 minutes in Jan 2026 to 5-8 hours by July; extrapolated at 64-day doubling, the one-work-month (167 hr) horizon would be reached around April 2027.
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