Thread: OpenAI's own report shows models' 80% time horizon on AI R&D is just 15 minutes
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-09
BasilHalperin threads musings on OpenAI's internal AI R&D time horizons, citing a recent series by ramez on recursive self-improvement: OpenAI's own research-automation report shows models still struggle with their R&D work, with an 80% time horizon of only 15 minutes — a striking gap versus AGI expectations. tobyordoxford amplifies the thread.
More from AGI Musings
- METR says it has 'convincing evidence' AI speeds up research — but the details are redacted — peterwildeford · 2026-11-09
- OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman: frontier models with test-time compute are becoming the engine of scientific discovery — gdb · 2026-11-09
- Long-term memory vs. search is like L1 cache vs. RAM, argues zetalyrae — zetalyrae · 2026-11-09
- AI is eroding traditional moats: years of advantage now replicated in days — DeryaTR_ · 2026-11-09
- Epoch AI: 2027 chip supply could run 30–170M frontier AI agents, or 1.9B cheaper ones — Dr_Singularity · 2026-11-09
- White paper: moving beyond the AI compute arms race as big tech faces historic spending losses — ReportProfessional57 · 2026-11-09