You can't out-research AI labs with agents: without nation-state compute, RSI is a losing bet
generativist · x · 2026-11-09
The author argues that even under the weakest form of RSI—automated research with sufficient novelty—outside developers using agents can't compete with frontier labs, because the bitter lesson applies: you don't have nation-states of compute. Maybe an architecture breakthrough could shift the advantage to fewer orders of magnitude, but until then it feels like staring down a tunnel at oncoming wind and light.
More from AGI Musings
- Dev reframes LLMs as "universal translators" translating between representations — brandon_xyzw · 2026-11-09
- The bitter lesson isn't 'naive wins' — it's whatever scales best with compute — pzakin · 2026-11-09
- Owain Evans: now is the right time to switch into AI safety work — OwainEvans_UK · 2026-11-09
- Henry Farrell: the "machine gods" metaphor shrinks AI policy debate and should be resisted — sebkrier · 2026-11-09
- Thomas Dietterich: map what LLMs can assess reliably, design UX for the rest — JessicaHullman · 2026-11-09
- Bitter lesson redux: methods that generalize beat compute brute force, Sutton weighs in — ryanallred · 2026-11-09