AI Safety Researcher Pivots From Preaching Short Timelines to Questioning the Evidence
JacquesThibs · x · 2026-11-08
A self-aware AI-circle post: the author spent 2022-2025 arguing that short AGI timelines were plausible and funding/work should adjust accordingly — and in 2026 finds himself writing 'points on why the evidence that updated you on short timelines isn't rock solid,' only to get mocked as 'a normie who can't update.'
It captures a paradox in AI timeline discourse: the same people who pushed the short-timeline narrative now scrutinize the quality of the very evidence that convinced them.
Related event: AI Safety Researchers Reverse Course on Short AGI Timelines(2 posts)→
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