Polymarket puts 11% odds on US AI safety bill by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-11-08
Polymarket launched a prediction market on whether the US enacts an AI safety bill: only 11% odds by December 31, 2026, rising to 83% by June 30, 2027.
Qualifying legislation must impose at least one of the following on AI developers/deployers:
- Release prohibition or mandated federal review above capability thresholds
- Training restrictions (data or compute caps)
- Usage restrictions on specific deployments
- Human-in-the-loop requirements
Context: Bloomington, Indiana unanimously voted to ban superintelligent AI within city limits, citing catastrophic risks.
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