AI progress per dollar fell 63% as R&D spending grew 5.3x faster than capability gains
kimmonismus · x · 2026-11-08
An analysis of METR's data shows Anthropic's measured AI capability gains accelerated — annual progress nearly doubled (from +15 to +29 points/year) between H1 2025 and H1 2026 — but R&D spending grew faster, from $1.85bn to $9.74bn (5.27x). Progress per dollar fell 63%, from 4.05 to 1.49 points per $1bn. The chart notes caveats: nominal spending, no adjustment for research lag, input-price changes or rising difficulty, so the decline doesn't establish that AI failed to improve research productivity.
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