Azeem Azhar: one 3.6% productivity quarter isn't proof yet, but firms are redesigning around AI
Exponential View (Azeem Azhar) · rss · 2026-11-08
In Exponential View #609, Azeem Azhar argues AI has yet to show up systematically in aggregate productivity numbers: the US quarter's 3.6% productivity growth is too noisy to attribute to AI. He analogizes the PC era, where computers took 14 years to move headline productivity while individual firms reported gains years earlier — AI will follow the same pattern, possibly faster.
Evidence of firm-level intent is mounting: law firm A&O Sherman is committing 3% of billable time ($1.1bn over five years) to AI with the ambition of "redesigning the service completely," echoing what Azhar hears privately from executives.
The issue also covers tech's political turn — Texas Governor-Elect Gina Hinojosa's "99.9% of us vs 15 billionaire tech guys" framing, a Dario Amodei profile, Gillian Tett on why America hates AI — and Europe financing a tech race it's losing.
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