Researcher disputes METR report reading: rejected hypothesis isn't Toby Ord's mixed model
JacquesThibs · x · 2026-11-08
- AI researcher JacquesThibs disputes a popular reading of the METR report, where some claim METR "considered and rejected Toby Ord's hypothesis."
- He argues METR actually rejected the jump-and-same-slope hypothesis, not Ord's one-time jump + slope increase mixed model, which the report never mentions — the two are not equivalent.
- The debate concerns how to interpret METR's model time-horizon trend data: whether capability growth is smooth extrapolation or contains a structural jump, which directly shapes forecasts of frontier model progress.
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