Open-source AEGIS simulates credential-leak outbreaks; adding memory lifts containment coverage by 7 points
shabrisharakosch · reddit · 2026-11-08
Built for the Hindsight hackathon, AEGIS//Contagion treats a leaked credential as an outbreak: 2,600 Monte Carlo simulations over a credential/workload graph (demo: R=1.39, 58-min median time to crown-jewel), then plans a portfolio of cuts under a disruption budget — 95% coverage at 7.2% disruption for $850, cutting all 15 dominant paths. A from-scratch 2-layer GraphSAGE (26.7K params, NumPy) reaches node AP 0.828 vs 0.425 base rate. Ablating memory on 6 scripted incidents: warm 97% vs cold 90% coverage (+7 points; naive top-k rotation: 16%), with the zero-gain case reported honestly. Caveats: synthetic topology, simulator-derived labels, read-only with human approval. Repo and demo video available.
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