Is Anthropic's AI acceleration real? A public-data triangulation says yes — and ~80% of it is from AI
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-11-07
Karthik Tadepalli pushes back on claims that METR's heavily redacted Anthropic report tells us nothing, triangulating with public data: (1) the acceleration is real — Anthropic's internal capability index AECI improved 15 points/year before Oct 2025 vs 29 points/year after, a 1.9x speedup; (2) it's probably caused by AI — METR attributes 80% of the 2x capability growth acceleration to AI, the strongest evidence yet of a recursive self-improvement feedback loop; (3) whether it continues is unknowable.
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