Ben Todd: AI's five eras each half as long, a superexponential looks like a series of exponentials
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-11-07
Ben Todd argues that from the inside, a superexponential looks like a series of exponentials, each lasting half as long. He divides AI into five eras:
- Pre-deep learning: 60 years (1950–2010)
- Deep learning: 9 years (2010–2019)
- LLMs: 4 years (2019–2023)
- Reasoning models: 2 years (2024–2025)
- Coding agents: 1 year (2026)
Capabilities have accelerated each time, with paradigm shift cycles steadily shortening.
Related event: Ben Todd: AI's five eras halve in length, showing super-exponential growth(2 posts)→
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