AI 2027 tracker update: Anthropic internal models already ahead of the AI 2027 curve
kimmonismus · x · 2026-11-07
The AI 2027 tracker was updated today. Based on AECI scores from METR's report on Anthropic's internal models, some of those models are estimated to be ahead of the AI 2027 scenario curve.
The chart plots Task-Horizon Progress (how long a task, in human time, agents complete with 80% success on METR software tasks):
- AI 2027 scenario for Nov 2026: 36h
- Epoch ECI estimate: 9h (GPT-6 Astra)
- AECI estimate: 20h (Claude Opus 5.5)
- Anthropic internal models (Model 4, Model 3, Model 2) plot above the curve, topping out near 40h
Implication: frontier capability progress may be running faster than the AI 2027 scenario assumed.
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