Evidence excluding compute acceleration behind AECI claim is redacted

datagenproc · x · 2026-11-07

datagenproc notes that the authors of the AECI acceleration report confidently exclude training compute acceleration as its cause — but the evidence supporting that conclusion is unfortunately redacted, so how much to defer is a matter of judgment.

He argues this matters when weighing alternative explanations, such as a big new pretraining run boosting capability by 5 AECI combined with a 1.4x speed improvement.

Related event: Redacted evidence in METR report sparks doubt over ruling out compute-driven AI acceleration(3 posts)→

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