AI experts' median estimate: 10% risk the technology kills everyone
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-11-06
In a debate with @ramez and @AndyMasley, Oxford researcher Toby Ord restates that relevant AI professionals give a median estimate of 10% that the technology will kill every child and adult in the world, or cause something equivalently bad. He argues that rough expert estimates of risk are sufficient when the stakes involve killing innocent bystanders and more precise estimates are unavailable.
Related event: Oxford's Toby Ord: AI Safety Action Doesn't Require Near-Certain Doom(2 posts)→
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