AI 2027 predictions tracking at 85% accuracy so far, capabilities ahead of schedule
Eliv_nurotic · reddit · 2026-11-06
X user spiceylemonade summarizes AI 2027 prediction tracking: of 202 predictions, 39% have been evaluated, and the verified ones are 85% accurate. Nearly all late-2026 predictions landed; the only miss so far is the predicted 10,000-person anti-AI protest in DC. The capabilities trend line has been especially accurate — arguably ahead of schedule.
The attached AI 2027 Tracker chart (data as of 2026-11-05) shows METR 80%-success task horizons climbing from 36 seconds for GPT-4 in 2023 to tens of hours for current frontier models, closely hugging the scenario's exponential extrapolation. Caveat: small evaluated sample, so the 85% figure deserves caution.
Related event: AI 2027 Predictions Tracking Shows 85% Accuracy So Far(2 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Don't defer to Twitter's sub-hour takes on METR — read the source — gleech · 2026-11-06
- EA moral views debate: critics accused of relying on even more extreme moral premises — ShakeelHashim · 2026-11-06
- Veteran dev: AI-built TraceDraw beats CorelDRAW 2026, predicts software industry upheaval by 2036 — Maxiol777 · 2026-11-06
- AI self-help clickbait everywhere sparks Fahrenheit 451 comparison: Hamlet as a one-page summary — chalmermagne · 2026-11-06
- X debate: does an LLM's 'thinking' have agency outside a prompt-triggered loop? — teodorio · 2026-11-06
- AI circle debate: can artists who shun AI still be called great artists? — repligate · 2026-11-06