Polymarket pegs odds of a US AI safety bill by 2026 at just 11% as DOJ launches Super Intelligence Task Force
Polymarket · x · 2026-11-06
Polymarket has launched a prediction market on whether the US enacts a federal AI safety bill: only 11% odds by December 31, 2026, rising to 83% by June 30, 2027.
The market defines an "AI Safety Bill" broadly, covering: bans on releasing or mandatory federal review of frontier models, restrictions on training data/compute/parameters, limits on deployment use cases, and human-in-the-loop requirements. Provisions governing only federal government use don't count.
The same thread notes the DOJ has launched a "Super Intelligence Task Force" to combat criminal misuse of advanced AI by foreign governments, criminal organizations, and corporations.
Related event: Polymarket Bets Just ~10% Chance of US AI Safety Law This Year(3 posts)→
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