Distillation-as-drafting: why Anthropic's catch-up speed should persist only if it's independent
jessi_cata · x · 2026-11-06
Using a racing 'drafting' analogy, the author argues Chinese labs have been drafting US labs via distillation and similar methods, making catch-up easier than frontier-pushing. The test: if Anthropic caught up to OpenAI by drafting, its velocity increase shouldn't persist; if independently, it should maintain or accelerate.
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