METR report finds AI is accelerating AI R&D at Anthropic; researcher now puts >50% odds on superintelligence within 18 months
EvanHub · x · 2026-11-06
METR has worked with internal Anthropic information since August to assess whether AI itself is accelerating AI development, and has now published a report summarizing the results of this risk assessment.
Researcher Jake Mendel shared the report, noting he had always held substantially longer timelines than his Anthropic friends, worrying they were in an echo chamber overstating uplift from their own models. But he considers METR among the most trustworthy sources on this topic, and now concedes his Anthropic friends have been more right about timelines. He also reads the report as evidence that a software-only singularity is plausible, updating to more than 50% odds of full-blown superintelligence within 18 months, absent a slowdown.
Related event: METR Report: AI Nearly Doubling Anthropic's Research Progress(30 posts)→
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