AI 2027 author: METR data shows progress even faster than forecast
DKokotajlo · x · 2026-11-06
A discussion of METR's latest report suggests AI progress is running even faster than AI 2027 predicted. The author clarifies a methodology nuance: AI 2027's 2x figure is R&D uplift measured against a human-researcher baseline, while METR's number uses a historical baseline. In principle, human-baseline uplift should read lower, but the two numbers are likely similar in practice.
Related event: AI 2027 Authors Say Progress Is Ahead of METR Predictions(2 posts)→
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