Anthropic report's key estimates are "guesses" — framing hides massive uncertainty, researcher says
daveholtz · x · 2026-11-06
daveholtz argues the way an Anthropic report is being framed hides how uncertain it is: many estimates are admitted "guesses," conclusions are sensitive to functional-form assumptions, and several rest on subjective judgments by Anthropic employees. MaxNadeau notes most underlying evidence was redacted, explaining the gap between conclusion strength and public evidence.
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