METR finds superexponential fit as AI drives current R&D acceleration, staff self-report gains
ricklamers · x · 2026-11-06
METR released findings on whether AI is accelerating AI R&D itself. ricklamers notes a superexponential fit matches the data better than an exponential one — hinting the acceleration may be compounding.
Part 3 of METR's evidence comes from interviews and surveys with lab staff: employees self-report dramatic productivity gains, while acknowledging the most important AI R&D contributions aren't yet fully automated. The authors caution this self-reported evidence is very hard to interpret.
An early empirical signal on the key AGI question of AI-driven acceleration of AI progress.
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