Founder's bear case: AI replaces value but creates none — bubble eve is here
oran_ge · x · 2026-11-06
A self-described AI believer publishes 'On the Eve of the AI Bubble Burst,' arguing AI currently only replaces humans and captures existing value without creating incremental economic value. Four observations: data-center buildout inflates hardware prices down to consumer electronics; intelligence gets cheap but volume gains don't add net value ('software with no one to sell to, just 2me'); AI kills intermediaries and shrinks the overall transaction/internet-traffic pie; and Microsoft, Google and others will fund capex via layoffs. He frames this as the recurring early phase of every tech revolution — 'the cycle is human nature' — notes the US could flip from accelerating to restricting AI in two days, and still expects long-term AI wins in medicine and longevity, but urges a more humane pace.
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