LLM routers audited: none of 7 beats a static mid-priced model at 85.3% for $0.0043

dl_weekly · x · 2026-11-04

A pre-registered, cost-aware audit of 7 commercial and open-source LLM routers (AutoBench Router Benchmark, 252 prompts, 20-model pool) finds none beats always calling one mid-priced model — GPT-5.6 Luna scores 85.3% at $0.0043/question. The theoretical prize is real (100% Delta-Hit at $0.0018 for perfect routing vs 87.5% at $0.079 for always-top-model), but capture is zero: across 17 settings, 5 collapsed to a single model taking ≥90% of traffic, and no setting ever beat the static policy in 10,000 bootstrap resamples.

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