LRudL's 2025 predictions aged well; new 2026 scenario includes AGI claims, market correction
clarejtbirch · x · 2026-11-04
LRudL's February 2025 predictions are shown to have an impressive hit rate. His 2026 scenario includes: AI solving a Millennium prize problem; Claude delivering 60% productivity uplift at Anthropic with largest models kept internal-only; OpenAI "o6" excelling at computer use and being called AGI; big software projects replicated cheaply by late 2026; AI getting good at CAD; big labs pulling ahead in RL; declining CoT interpretability; and a late-2026 market correction.
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