New Scaling Recipe for Data-Constrained Training Cuts Perplexity 14% via Hyperparameter Transfer and Ensembling

andrewgwils · x · 2026-11-03

Andrew Wilson's group released a new arXiv paper led by Ethan Baron addressing two flaws in prior data-constrained scaling prescriptions:

The authors fit power laws for hyperparameter transfer plus scaling laws for compute allocation with ensembling. Training on 100M FineWeb tokens, the recipe cuts validation loss by over 0.15 nats (14% lower perplexity) and achieves monotonic gains with compute via ensembling, validated at up to 12× larger compute budgets.

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