Inference startups hitting $100M+ ARR are just reselling prebooked compute, not real businesses
abhiadesai · x · 2026-11-03
pythianism observes that many random inference startups are hitting $100M+ ARR, and explains what's really going on: they're reselling prebooked compute without owning any GPUs. If compute is tight, making money this way isn't surprising — but it's not a real business.
abhiadesai adds a Munger-flavored take: in a world of increasing returns to capital vs labor, the rational move for these intermediaries is to reinvest profits into lab equity like Anthropic — "laundering funds into lab equity" may become a big part of investment strategies going forward.
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