Right about everything: Amazon beat Walmart on fundamentals yet returned 80 points less since 2023
FinanceYF5 · x · 2026-11-02
In 2023 you could have correctly predicted Amazon's faster revenue growth (12.6% CAGR vs Walmart's 5.2%), expanding margins, and that AI would make AWS a core delivery layer for AI tools.
Yet since end of 2023 Amazon stock is up only 58.2% (17.5% CAGR) while Walmart is up 135% (35.2% CAGR) — buying the objectively better business left you 80 points behind.
The brutal lesson: you can be right on every forecast and still lose to the market on valuation and expectations.
More from Venture
- Modal CEO on who wins inference, open-source peak, and RL's real limits — 20VC · 2026-11-02
- Grady Booch Jokes He'll Move Retirement Funds Into NFTs Amid AI Stock Volatility — Grady_Booch · 2026-11-02
- AI game site reveals referral leaderboard: top sharer's 20,932 visits earn just $20.30 — ezshine · 2026-11-02
- AI safety super PACs outspend rivals $44.4M to $27.9M in 2026 midterms — xeophon · 2026-11-02
- Nvidia's 27-year market cap history: from $800M to $5T, with 70% crashes along the way — mitchdeg · 2026-11-02
- Sequoia's $1T thesis: sell the work, not the software — and why copilots may be the wrong bet — basedjensen · 2026-11-02