Against SURA critique: high p(doom) is treated as loonie, not respectable
JacquesThibs · x · 2026-11-01
The author critiques the "Against SURA" post: it claims a 90% p(doom) view carries respectability, but in reality people constantly hedge their p(doom) below 40% to distance themselves from "overconfident weirdos." Who actually holds high p(doom), and does it matter? The author also argues alignment is harder than many AI safety experts realize, while many anti-AI SURA folks have shallow understanding despite strong convictions.
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