Furman: nobody wants to hire more AI-powered juniors — the Jevons paradox isn't showing up
soumitrashukla9 · x · 2026-11-01
Former CEA chair Jason Furman offers a counterintuitive observation: technology often expands hiring via the Jevons paradox — higher productivity raises the incentive to hire — but in AI discussions, "I haven't heard anyone who wants to hire more entry-level because those entry-level powered by AI are more productive." He suspects the CEA's efficient size would be smaller than it is now.
The attached quote card from his essay "AI Could Do My First Job. Not My Last." reads: "I have talked to dozens of colleagues at Harvard and other institutions. I have not met a single one who cites the Jevons paradox in their own hiring of research assistants." This aligns with the "Pyramids, Diamonds, and Oscillations" paper modeling AI structurally shrinking junior roles rather than expanding them.
Related event: Economist Furman: AI Can Do My First Job, Not My Last(4 posts)→
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