Furman hails 'Pyramids, Diamonds, and Oscillations' paper modeling AI freezing junior hiring
soumitrashukla9 · x · 2026-11-01
The author shares that Jason Furman recommended their paper "Pyramids, Diamonds, and Oscillations" (co-authored with collaborators in Frankfurt and Hong Kong) in his latest essay, calling it the best paper he has read on the topic.
The paper models how AI affects firm hiring structures: in the short run AI leads firms to freeze junior hiring even if they eventually return to the familiar pyramid of many juniors and few seniors, while faster learning could shift them permanently toward a diamond structure — fewer juniors and a bulge of experienced mid-level staff. Furman suggests non-technical readers feed the paper to AI to rewrite it in whatever format they prefer.
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