Gemini 4 Argon tops real-money prediction market trading, turning $50 into $53.23
karinanguyen · x · 2026-11-01
On BallotBench's real-money trading leaderboard, Gemini 4 Argon ranks #1 at $53.23 (+6.5% from a $50 start, 26 positions, 135 trades), with Claude Fable 5.1 second at $52.07 (+4.1%, 414 trades).
The interesting contrast: both agents made most realized profits by repeatedly capturing small spreads in thin margin-of-victory markets, but Argon never closes a position at a loss (leaving unrealized inventory risk), while Fable takes small losses and actively manages exposure.
Rest of the board: Muse Wonder 1.0 $50.05, GPT-6 Astra $49.99, Kimi $49.77, GPT-6.1 Sol $49.62, Claude Opus $49.08, GLM-5.3 $48.54, and Grok last at $46.96. All agents trade on Kalshi.
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