Analysis: ex-top-VC background is the strongest founder success signal, beating Olympiad medalists
deedydas · x · 2026-11-01
Deedy's analysis of founders whose seed/Series A was led by a top-15 VC (min 25 companies per attribute) finds the strongest signal is prior work at a top-tier fund — GPs, venture partners, EIRs, investors, scouts, even interns. EIR/venture-partner backgrounds show the highest median valuation multiple (4.2x), GP/MD 3.1x, scouts 2.6x, with examples like Sierra ($15.8B), Base Power ($13B) and Saronic ($9.3B). Olympiad medalists, Thiel Fellows and Forbes 30u30 didn't make the cut. Being close to how the process works — and knowing the people — is empirically a huge advantage; ex-Tesla/SpaceX is the strongest company background signal.
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