Intel earnings call: server CPU TAM seen 5x to $200B+, chip shortage into 2028
ryanshrout · x · 2026-10-30
Analyst Patrick Moorhead shares 10 takeaways from Intel's earnings call not in the release: Intel sees server CPU TAM growing from $40B to $200B+ in five years, driven by agents; server CPU units up 30%+ per year industry-wide with shortages into 2028; the Israel fab outage cost $300M in Q4 revenue and 2 points of gross margin; PC units projected down 12% in 2026 and 10% in 2027 with no memory relief; custom chips up 50% QoQ; Intel is open to fabbing Arm CPUs and offering modular x86; 2027 will be a heavy investment year with capex up strongly and FCF likely negative.
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