Global AI computing capacity now doubling every 9 months, growth down from 6x to 2.5x
Jsevillamol · x · 2026-10-30
Epoch AI estimates that the computing power of AI chips sold each quarter has grown 2.5x per year since early 2024 (90% CI: 2.3–2.7x) — global AI compute capacity doubling roughly every 9 months.
- Down from roughly 6x annual growth in 2023, when ChatGPT/GPT-4 demand and Nvidia's H100 drove a surge.
- Based on quarterly sales from six chip designers (Nvidia, Google, AMD, Amazon, Huawei, Cambricon) in H100-equivalents: Q2 2026 shipments hit 6.3M H100e, with Nvidia at 3.95M and Google rising to 1.6M.
- Some evidence of further deceleration, though not statistically significant; the data ends just as Nvidia begins shipping Rubin, which could be a lull between generations.
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