Gensyn researchers launch Flu Forecast Game for live quantile flu hospitalization predictions
benfielding · x · 2026-10-30
Gensyn researchers Raf Frongillo and Bo Waggoner launched the Flu Forecast Game, a live quantile forecasting game predicting weekly US flu hospitalizations — a hard-to-predict metric that hospitalizes hundreds of thousands each winter.
Commenters argue the demo shows what prediction markets could be: forecasts with real social value, while big platforms today focus only on the most exploitative corner of the space.
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