US-China frontier AI gap narrows to just ~3.3 months per AA Progress Index
scaling01 · x · 2026-10-29
scaling01 cites the Artificial Analysis Progress Index showing the US-China frontier gap at 3.3 months.
The chart's linear fits over all frontier releases since Kimi K2 show:
- US frontier (Claude Opus 5.5, 351.3) vs China frontier (Kimi K3, 349.7): only 10.57 points apart
- Annual improvement rate: 75 pts/year US vs 78 pts/year China, China slightly faster
- Trend extrapolation suggests China's frontier reaches Claude Opus 5.5's level by Dec 30
- Fitted curves cross around Sep 2030
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