Geoffrey Irving puts >80% on CSETH, signaling rapid AI formal-math progress
geoffreyirving · x · 2026-10-28
AI safety researcher Geoffrey Irving says that despite "eating a ton of Bayes points" on ETH two days ago, he now puts >80% probability on CSETH, joking in logical-inductor terms that "we're still in the lower-order terms." Quantified timeline updates from frontier-lab researchers like this are a first-hand signal of AI accelerating formal mathematics.
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