VCs holding top AI stakes raise next funds 1.3x faster; 11 of 26 already back in market
FinanceYF5 · x · 2026-10-28
A Murph Capital x Harmonic study shared by FinanceYF5 shows early stakes in OpenAI, Anthropic and other top AI companies have become the strongest credential in VC fundraising.
Key data
- Q3 saw 152 funds close at $46B; funds holding at least one Top 25 AI company took 26 slots (17%) but captured $28.8B (63%).
- Comparing 2025-26 to 2023-24: firms without Top 25 stakes saw new funds fall 43%, those with 4+ rose 35%; holding one company lifts the odds of closing a new fund 1.8x, and only pre-2025 early investments count.
- Holders return faster: median fund interval is 34 months without holdings vs 23 with 2-3 and 20 with 4+.
Who raises next
- Tracking 215 fundraises since 2009 (typical 18-month interval), 11 of 26 are already back in market; 7 closed $18B last quarter.
- Projected next core raises: Dragoneer (Jan 2027), Lightspeed (Mar 2027), Thrive ($10B latest fund), a16z (late 2027), Founders Fund (late 2027 at earliest), Benchmark (mid-2029).
Related event: VCs Backing Top AI Firms Dominate 63% of Q3 Fundraising(2 posts)→
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