Goldman says AI's boost to US growth is near its peak; Apollo finds 'zero financial payoff' outside Big Tech
fortune · reddit · 2026-10-28
Two top Wall Street economists flag trouble for the AI-driven growth story:
- Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius: AI's growth impulse is set to peak in late 2026 or early 2027, a call made before recent concerns about AI investment sustainability intensified. He partly blames large deficits and "AI-linked borrowing" for long-term rates rising 100bps across developed markets since early 2026, estimating a cumulative 0.6% GDP drag if it persists. Renewed Middle East escalation pushing fuel and gas prices back near April highs adds downside risk.
- Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok: "Despite massive investments and widespread hype, AI has delivered zero financial payoff to corporate America outside of tech" — the productivity payoff meant to succeed the AI capex boom hasn't shown up.
Related event: Goldman, Apollo Warn AI Boom Nears Peak With Little Payoff Outside Tech(2 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Kevin Xu: There's a sovereign AI bubble inside the AI bubble — kevinsxu · 2026-10-28
- Chinese AI labs rely heavily on Western revenue while US labs need none from China — kevinsxu · 2026-10-28
- Defining recursive self-improvement: clamped compute means RSI isn't happening — dfrsrchtwts · 2026-10-28
- Claire Vo: Enterprises Are Entrusting AI Transformation to IT Departments — nlarusstone · 2026-10-28
- Delaware plan to let AI agents run entire businesses triggers congressional probe — Ars Technica AI · 2026-10-28
- Economist re-runs viral Goldman AI labor chart, finds the inference fragile — danielrock · 2026-10-28