Economist re-runs viral Goldman AI labor chart, finds the inference fragile
danielrock · x · 2026-10-28
Economist @EconBerger is semi-replicating the viral Goldman chart linking AI adoption to labor market impact, and the re-estimation should make you skeptical.
- With rolling regressions and a 12-month window, the slope of AI adoption on employment growth and unemployment swings wildly and flips sign around ChatGPT's release (Nov 2022)
- 3-month windows are even more volatile, with R² near zero for most of the sample — the 'AI adoption hurts jobs' relationship is statistically fragile
- The viral inference likely stems from window/specification choices rather than a stable structural relationship
Related event: Replication attempts cast doubt on AI job-loss study(2 posts)→
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