2026 wafer fab equipment forecast raised to $153B as the cycle lengthens
BenBajarin · x · 2026-10-28
Diligence Stack (Ben Bajarin) raised its 2026 wafer fab equipment (WFE) base case to roughly $153B, up 28% from 2025, with a High case of $157B and $278B projected by 2030. Recent results from ASML, Applied Materials, and TSMC all point toward the bull scenario.
Core thesis: tool demand has decoupled from wafer volume —
- Gate-all-around transistors and backside power cut tool reuse at 2nm
- HBM consumes 3-4x the wafer capacity of standard DRAM per bit
- Advanced packaging has become a second bottleneck after lithography
The author admits January's $125-129B base case was too cautious, as memory makers and leading-edge foundries committed faster than expected.
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