Prediction markets look 'accurate' but that's calibration, not accuracy
gleech · x · 2026-10-27
A new paper claims prediction markets are highly accurate, but @moultano pushes back on a common conflation: what's usually shown is calibration, not accuracy — you could flip a coin on every market and still achieve perfect calibration. The grey histogram on the x-axis shows actual accuracy, and markets are only accurate for econ questions.
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