Analysis of 1,016 VC rounds: 60% go to non-AI startups, not AI
carapatata_ · reddit · 2026-10-27
An analysis by Just Raised of 1,016 venture rounds ($126.8B) between September and October 2026 shows the "everything is AI" narrative doesn't match reality:
- AI infrastructure (models, compute, data) captured only 18% of rounds (184) but 50% of all capital ($63.6B), with a $20.5M median.
- Non-AI startups (biotech, chips, robotics, energy, defense) made up 60% of rounds (610) and 42% of capital ($53.6B), median $11M.
- Applied AI accounted for 22% of rounds but just 8% of capital (median $8M).
Removing the five largest rounds (OpenAI $30B, Anduril $5B, Mistral $3.5B, Crusoe $3B, The Boring Company $3B) drops AI infrastructure's share from 50% to 33%, leaving non-AI startups dominating with 55% of capital.
Other findings:
- No early-stage gap: Seed medians were $7M (AI infra), $5.9M (applied AI), $5M (rest); Series A tied at exactly $20M across all three. The gap opens at Series B, where AI infra jumps to a $111M median vs $50M for the rest.
- Non-AI has more mega-rounds: 103 rounds of $100M+ for non-AI companies vs 79 for both AI groups combined, concentrated in health/biotech (111 rounds, $5.2B), deeptech/hardware (81 rounds, $13.7B), climate/energy (68 rounds).
- Europe's most active investor isn't a VC — it's Nvidia: 22 appearances (leading 13) across a 468-round sample, part of its $10B European investment commitment.
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