Deep dive: where do p(doom) estimates of AI apocalypse actually come from?
anderssandberg · x · 2026-10-27
A groundlevel-ai.com feature traces the origins and reliability of "p(doom)" estimates. Eli Lifland puts AI takeover at 67% if labs don't slow down, with 40% extinction conditional on takeover; Evan Hubinger says >10% extinction risk within a decade; Geoffrey Irving told UK Parliament 50%. The piece explores the rationalist/forecaster subculture, its philanthropic funding, and whether these odds are useful when talking to normies or journalists.
Related event: Inside p(doom): where AI extinction probability estimates come from(3 posts)→
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